Look at biggest oil moving shipping cos?
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I think "normal" oil prices with US shale long term will be $65-70, give or take. But any time there's a large demand shock like during a recession it can still drop hard. Oil is tricky because if supply > demand for too long, storage fills up and they give the stuff away.
Did you read Lt3000's shale piece? I don't think US shale prices will stay low based on it.
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I did. The competing narrative, that I agree w/, is that shale is a repeat of the 19th century oil boom where most players were terrible. People point out that overall shale producers are cash flow neutral. The nuance to me is that some lose really hard, some still win a lot.
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Combine that with no new shale being made and it increasing demand it seems hard to imagine oil prices ever being this low again.
End of conversation
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