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(2/2) I've noticed this is true for all professions. Epidemiologists have completely different views on the threat level of Coronavirus, for example. Something tells me that whoever gets it completely wrong here will not reevaluate their skill level afterward.
Is a year enough time for a professional? I’ve see guys go through long bad swings.
For live poker you need a couple years. For tournaments maybe 3. There's a nice variance simulator for the confidence interval based on number of hands and standard deviation:https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/ …
1 year is enough for online assuming enough hands are played? 5 years for stocks haha?
A top winner might have had 10bb/100 win rate with 130 standard deviation, and played 60k hands a month.
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