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Best estimate of #COVID19 death rate:
As of March 2nd, 706 Diamond Princess cruise ship passengers have tested positive, 380 without symptoms.
6 have died. 36 are in critical condition. There were 3700 passengers total, 3,063 were tested as of Feb 20.
6/706 = 0.8% CFRpic.twitter.com/s6XMU6m07J
If 50% of those in critical condition die, you get a CFR of (6+36/2)/706 = 3.3%. It's also possible that those who tested negative later would've tested positive as their infections worsened. Average age of cruise ship passenger is 46. CFR looks like ~1-3%pic.twitter.com/8LfWzkI258
If you want to be extremely optimistic, you could assume that all 3700 passengers got it and that only 6 people die.
CFR = 6/3700 = 0.16% death rate
vs. 0.1% for the flu.
But because #COVID19 has a ~2.28 R0 compared to 1.3 for the flu, way more people will get it.
And then again, because its so much more contagious than the flu, more people will get it at the same time than the flu, overwhelming our linear capacity hospitals, reducing care for #COVID19 and other diseases.
So...even the most optimistic case possible does not look good.
It has been confirmed that every passenger of the Diamond Princess was tested. 7 people now have died, giving us a 7/698 or ~1% mortality rate. Median age of this ship was probably around 55.pic.twitter.com/9GpTwMgYzC
"In South Korean, the death rate in #Covid19 patients ages 80+ was 10.4%, 5.35% in 70-somethings, 1.51% in patients 60 to 69, 0.37% in 50-somethings. Even lower rates were seen in younger people, dropping to zero in those 29 and younger."
Age distribution of cases in SK, N=300kpic.twitter.com/PA7fUNVOPe
10 deaths on the Diamond princess now. 1.4% mortality rate across all infected. Median age estimated at 56. 9 people left in ICU. We should end up with a ~2% mortality rate for all people with infection bad enough to test positive.
Best data we got for #COVID19 so far.
I would expect cruise ship demos to skew older than the general population though
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