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If it turns out they covered this up and fucked the world in the process we are going to see really big anti-China sentiment. It’s the straw that breaks the camels back. Could also see a reaction to Chinese people not dissimilar to Arab Muslims post 9/11. Hopefully not.
If #COVID19 is as infectious and as hearty as it looks (why are there no infections in Thailand?), here's how it will play out:
We will have rotating outbreaks over the next 1-2 years until we get herd immunity. New York with get the bug. New York will get quarantined.
Because containment is impossible, Philadelphia will get the bug, Philadelphia will get quarantined (no mass gatherings, telecommuting, etc.), and then, because total containment is impossible, New York will get reinfected, New York will be requarantined etc.
The name of the game is delay as much as we can because: 1. The virus is exponential and hospital beds, masks, pills, doctors, nurses etc. are not 2. We need to buy time until we can get a vaccine 3. We can't do full quarantine everywhere all-the-time to kill the bug.
3 is politically impossible, practically impossible, and oh yeah, society would shut down and cease to function. Going to be a fun 1-2 years!
Some would argue that it might be better to just let the virus do its thing, but that would result in a total overwhelming of our limited capacity hospitals, which would increase the mortality rate unnecessarily. I have a lot of fear and empathy for hospital workers right now:
They may have grueling hours, and worse, it looks like they seem to get the disease no matter what and it's particularly fatal for them. I wonder if there's some sort of relationship between the "amount" of exposure and severity not dissimilar to the idea of HIV+ vs. AIDS.
WHO has to call this thing a pandemic on Monday (though they might not because there are some financial implications) and, while I don't like to bet against mean reversion, people are going to freak out on Monday.https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/pandemic-bond-debate-inside-look-world-bank-coronavirus-relief-investment-2020-2-1028906657 …
For management of #Covid19 I think there’s one critical number:
New infections per local hospital bed.
There’s a threshold below which our medical system does not collapse. We need to stay below it. When we approach it, we need to quarantine until new infections subside.
After infections subside, the area will get reinfected and the cycle will repeat. Unless the virus mutates to become worse, each success peak will be lower because more and more people will be locally immune. I think this method is the best way to address limited health
Care capacity but also people’s’ desires to not be cooped up in their homes for a year. Quarantine. Return to normalcy. Quarantine. Return to normalcy. Delay delay delay, until we have a vaccine. You can’t just “accept this risk”. Too many people will die becaus everyone will
Hit the hospital system at the same time, reducing overall care for covid but also every other ailment in the hospital.
Not so much a prediction as something I'd like to be true, but anyways:
#COVID19 will be America's second sputnik moment. We will be so embarrassed by our incompetence relative to China, that we will start reinvesting in science and industry once again!
@molson_hart Apologies for those who get to see this for nth time...had to throw it on my predictions thread.https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1237533313213972482 …
You can believe that China has turned around a terrible situation, perhaps reaching a (temporary) steady-state, but the idea that China only had 33 cases on March 11th is comedy. Too many people going in and out. Too many in general. Social distancing works, but not perfectly.pic.twitter.com/amC14MubXP
5 deaths in the philippines, infections in Singapore chugging along, lots of cases in Bahrain, Egypt, and KSA "Warm-weather will fix it" hypothesis gets weaker and weaker.https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1236344074459918339 …
Will humidity? Probably not. Path to containment is social distancing. We've seen so in China and South Korea. Everything else is probably magical thinking.https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1237614708930367489 …
I'm going on the world's most stable limb and saying that the UK will reverse this "herd immunity" strategy shortly.https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1238537513242955779 …
7 deaths, 693 passengers, 1% death rate for (generally older) cruise ship passengers. Could get higher. Updates are few and far between now.https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1234686714318213126 …
The original prediction! I overestimated the economic impact. China has done quite the job to restart their economy so far...https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1225236200744681473 …
How do you save the cruise, airplane travel, and restaurant industries?https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1238684942957191168 …
Yet another nail in the warm weather will stop #COVID19 coffin:
All clubs, restaurants, and bars in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam are to be closed starting today.
“44 cases” says Vietnam. Bullshit.
Only district 1. Forgot to write that. My bad. District 1 though is like HCMC's manhattan if there were a thing.
Mosques have air conditioning. https://twitter.com/spwells/status/1239123736306974720?s=21 …https://twitter.com/spwells/status/1239123736306974720 …
Shut down the f*%king religious gathering places already... https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/malaysia-reports-190-new-coronavirus-cases-most-linked-to-mosque-event?xtor=CS3-18&utm_source=STiPhone&utm_medium=share&utm_term=2020-03-15%2017%3A03%3A55 …The sooner the United States realizes that it has fallen behind in science and technology, the sooner we can address that problem. Feels like we're people on a beach confused by the receding waters that precede a big tsunami.https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1239058118979604481 …
This is huge, but I don’t see how this is going to fix the huge economic problems we face. https://twitter.com/nicktimiraos/status/1239295384587055105?s=21 …https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1239295384587055105 …
China will ban (or heavily regulate) its wet markets, making West Africa bush meat markets the principal breeding ground for new viruses in this age of interconnection. Despite our improved medical care and hygiene, higher populations and travel may mean more outbreaks.
Serbia asks China, not the EU nor the US, for help. Watershed moment or a friend in need is a friend indeed. Mix of both, but I'm going to say the former. This is a major turning point.https://twitter.com/RushDoshi/status/1239645067066978311 …
As we adopt work from home procedures at companies all over the United States, I wonder: Is that even a possibility for our government agencies? Can the IRS and others work from home? Some of their websites operate 9-to-5, do they even have cloud storage of shared files?
My old barber worked in a "salon suites" - basically wework for barbers. It's closing because of the virus, so he's texted everyone saying that he's setting up in his apartment. I dig the entrepreneurial spirit, but this shows you how hard containment will be.
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