I don’t have any data on big cos as I fish in the shallow end of the pond!
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Replying to @mgirdley @TaylorHoliday
The debt you're seeing on these software cos must be personally guaranteed as they are basically without bankable collateral, right?
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @TaylorHoliday
No. Not debt from banks. It’s from SAAS lenders.
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Replying to @mgirdley @TaylorHoliday
What's non-personally guaranteed SAAS lender debt going for these days? I was kicking around the idea of taking out a big loan as an option in case markets really tank over the next 3-6 months.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @TaylorHoliday
All over the place. Some I’ve seen are like this: Assuming recurring subscription revenue, most are like 10-12% with a minimum repayment multiple (like 1.2x loan amount). Will lend up to 6 months of MRR.
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Replying to @mgirdley @TaylorHoliday
I don't know enough about the space to make a call like this, but I expect those guys to get KILLED when/if our economy turns. Companies definitely cancel those recurring revenue subscriptions when times get tough. The chase for yield continues.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @TaylorHoliday
I think you’re right and I think it depends on the business. It’s why
@dura_software only acquires products that are mission critical OR we think will be cycle-neutral.1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @mgirdley @Molson_Hart and
Looking at it in practice, at exit it seems the lenders always get their money back. Remember, debt gets paid before equity etc.
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Yeah, but...there's no liquidatable assets when these SAAS cos blow. Charlie Munger had some comments about how much he loves government software companies at the recent DJCO meeting. I haven't gotten to them yet, but you may also be interested.
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IMHO: It’s hard to go bankrupt when you have >90% gross margins, predictable recurring revenue and customers whose business wholly depends on you.
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Agree with that for sure, the trouble is these lenders aren't just lending to the companies you were smart enough to buy! They're lending to the whole bell curve of SAAS cos.
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