At the time, in casual talks w/ investors, no one was interested. Too long of a hold/no liquidity, my limited track record, unfamiliar model...just couldn't find the right investor fit. Now @PermanentEquity, @chenholdco, others are visible proof-points (though still early).
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I apologize for all the financial/PE jargon in this thread. I hate doing that, but given character limits, this was the most concise way of communicating the key points. Takeaways: timing, connections are really important w/ new ideas; w/ good execution & team this idea would
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To sharpen my thinking, what haven't I considered or misjudged?
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Replying to @tsludwig
I don’t think you’ve missed this, but you didn’t mention it: What’s the point of investing? Mostly it’s for retirement or to be able to spend it later. If you build a never-sellholding company that’s not publicly traded then you can’t give people that liquidity when they need it
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @tsludwig
I’m cool with Berkshire Hathaway never selling and never paying me a dividend because I can sell my shares whenever I want. In a never sell or-model, how do I get money back when I want/need it?
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
Also, my model would still generate 15x on invested capital over 20 years with no exit...but, your point is still valid and the lack of liquidity is a major challenge.
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Replying to @tsludwig
What happens if in 20 years we’re in a bear market?
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
Would really depend on what investors wanted to do at that point...ideally, I would have picked investors that didn't need liquidity (small % of total assets) and would want to optimize exit timing, so keep holding.
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Replying to @tsludwig
Maybe a promise to IPO is the way to solve it. Dunno. I’d also be worried about key man risk over that time horizon without the option to sell.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
Key man is also a factor...though I think you could arrange for an orderly liquidation of assets as the companies should be able to operate w/o HQ involvement.
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If other guys have raised for it, and you dig it just go for it. Sometimes it’s just a numbers game. Sometimes it’s hard to raise money for new ideas. Sam Zell said that raising his first re vulture fund was difficult. Subsequent raises were easy after everyone saw the results.
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