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Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

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Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

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    1. Tim Ludwig‏ @tsludwig Feb 15
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      Years ago, I was excited by the idea of forming a holding co. I dug in pretty deep, but ended up pursuing deals on a stand-alone basis. I’ve had a few independent conversations lately with folks mentioning similar ideas, which made me revisit my plan. tldr: It's still good

      11 replies 14 retweets 162 likes
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    2. Tim Ludwig‏ @tsludwig Feb 15
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      The key structural benefits I saw - Ability to recycle capital and reinvest at high rates of return - Lower cost of debt as portfolio scales (x-collateralize) - Institutional systems w/ FO time-horizon - Tax-deferred, long-term compounding - Lower trans costs & reinvestment risk

      1 reply 3 retweets 33 likes
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    3. Tim Ludwig‏ @tsludwig Feb 15
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      Using $20M called over time, my model shows a 25x MOIC in 20 years, net of carry. Most interesting was comparing that to a similar portfolio of more traditional PE investing w/ regular sales. In that scenario, MOIC was ~5x. My model (no formulas):https://bit.ly/37ssN7e 

      4 replies 3 retweets 47 likes
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    4. Tim Ludwig‏ @tsludwig Feb 15
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      At the time, in casual talks w/ investors, no one was interested. Too long of a hold/no liquidity, my limited track record, unfamiliar model...just couldn't find the right investor fit. Now @PermanentEquity, @chenholdco, others are visible proof-points (though still early).

      1 reply 0 retweets 22 likes
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    5. Tim Ludwig‏ @tsludwig Feb 15
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      I apologize for all the financial/PE jargon in this thread. I hate doing that, but given character limits, this was the most concise way of communicating the key points. Takeaways: timing, connections are really important w/ new ideas; w/ good execution & team this idea would 🚀

      2 replies 0 retweets 19 likes
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    6. Tim Ludwig‏ @tsludwig Feb 15
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      To sharpen my thinking, what haven't I considered or misjudged?

      13 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
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    7. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Feb 15
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      Replying to @tsludwig

      I don’t think you’ve missed this, but you didn’t mention it: What’s the point of investing? Mostly it’s for retirement or to be able to spend it later. If you build a never-sellholding company that’s not publicly traded then you can’t give people that liquidity when they need it

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Feb 15
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @tsludwig

      I’m cool with Berkshire Hathaway never selling and never paying me a dividend because I can sell my shares whenever I want. In a never sell or-model, how do I get money back when I want/need it?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Tim Ludwig‏ @tsludwig Feb 15
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      Also, my model would still generate 15x on invested capital over 20 years with no exit...but, your point is still valid and the lack of liquidity is a major challenge.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Feb 15
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      Replying to @tsludwig

      What happens if in 20 years we’re in a bear market?

      11:03 AM - 15 Feb 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Tim Ludwig‏ @tsludwig Feb 15
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          Replying to @Molson_Hart

          Would really depend on what investors wanted to do at that point...ideally, I would have picked investors that didn't need liquidity (small % of total assets) and would want to optimize exit timing, so keep holding.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Feb 15
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          Replying to @tsludwig

          Maybe a promise to IPO is the way to solve it. Dunno. I’d also be worried about key man risk over that time horizon without the option to sell.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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