If you bought the exact low in 2002, you got 500% in two years, 800% in 2006, and 5,000% if you held to the 2017 cycle top. But this just assumes you bought on the default news when it was the major worldwide story.
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How’d this stray work in Venezuela haha?
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @orrdavid
I wasn't trading in the 1990s, so I legit don't know. Were Venezuelan banks listed in the U.S. and what happened to their shareholders? The Caracas stock exchange has been outpacing local inflation in recent years so I'd assume there will be decent recovery there with new gov.
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I don’t know tbh. I was referring to the Venezuelan stock exchange and I assumed it got worse when it looked like it couldn’t.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @orrdavid
I have a no more than 10% of the portfolio in any one EM country rule. I maybe should have bought more Mexico in Nov. 2016, for example, as I lived there and saw that things were fine despite Trump election panic. But rules are created to avoid Venezuela type black swan fiascos.
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Replying to @irbezek @Molson_Hart
I like that 10% number, too. I'm slightly over that in Mexico. I like 7/11 for a Japanese company. Those Chinese airports are tempting. Russian oil pipelines. Thailand would be PTT if I could buy it. Spread the bets, why not.
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If it’s not too expensive now, I’d look at Vietnam and Ethiopia.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @irbezek
Saigon was definitely awesome and there's lots of potential there. Good idea, I'll check that out, too.
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I bet the prices are too high. Manufacturers are overly bullish on the country. You can replace China with a country that is like 7% it’s population lol
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Cant*
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I don’t know anything about public equities but if I were doing PE I would go straight to Japan. That is the spot.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @irbezek
People say platitudes about different countries. Japan, "bad corporate governance makes it uninvestable." A a chart of Nikkei makes that seem reasonable. But I learned a funny detail: the late '80s Japan bubble was twice the size of dotcom's. Only now are valuations good again.
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Replying to @orrdavid @Molson_Hart
Always have to backfit a narrative to the price action. Japan peaked at 60x earnings. Had the U.S. hit 60x earnings, the S&P would have been at 4,500 at the turn of the century, and we'd still be down 25% from the peak today.
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