Molson Hart

I do think a country like Colombia with 50+ years of not defaulting on its debt and decades of center-right neoliberal government has earned a higher credit/trust rating than say Russia though. Still, speaking the local language certainly helps. I don't touch Russia personally.

Also, just putting this in context. The Russian oil pipeline seems like ... an incredibly valuable asset. 5 times earnings? Going to think it through, but seems worth the risk. Especially with just an investment or two per country.

You know the Kelly criterion right? Just do half Kelly on it

Levered portfolio strategy is all about limiting the portfolio's overall downswings. In this case, if I buy it, it'll probably be a 5% position. So if a few things like that go horribly wrong at once, it won't be the end of the world.

If you bought the exact low in 2002, you got 500% in two years, 800% in 2006, and 5,000% if you held to the 2017 cycle top. But this just assumes you bought on the default news when it was the major worldwide story.

How’d this stray work in Venezuela haha?

I wasn't trading in the 1990s, so I legit don't know. Were Venezuelan banks listed in the U.S. and what happened to their shareholders? The Caracas stock exchange has been outpacing local inflation in recent years so I'd assume there will be decent recovery there with new gov.