Molson Hart

Colombia's leading bank was selling for less than 7x earnings at the bottom in 2016. GDP still growing at 2%. No significant bad loans. Continuous dividend hikes back to 2002. If you make it through 2008 healthy, was 2016 really going to blow you up? $CIB

Yet many people I talked to about it wouldn't even look at it due to country risk - despite its economy scoring ahead of much of the EU on economic freedom. And why would the government loot a bank that is tied to the country's elite?

Im just saying there are risks. How much of their deposits are drug money? Maybe the us gets a stick up it’s ass about that and hits them with a fine. FARC is fucked but could it come back...etc etc

That's fair - and actually even more so in that they have significant market share in Panama as well so the Panama Papers/offshore stuff could have been problematic.

I do think a country like Colombia with 50+ years of not defaulting on its debt and decades of center-right neoliberal government has earned a higher credit/trust rating than say Russia though. Still, speaking the local language certainly helps. I don't touch Russia personally.

Also, just putting this in context. The Russian oil pipeline seems like ... an incredibly valuable asset. 5 times earnings? Going to think it through, but seems worth the risk. Especially with just an investment or two per country.

You know the Kelly criterion right? Just do half Kelly on it

Levered portfolio strategy is all about limiting the portfolio's overall downswings. In this case, if I buy it, it'll probably be a 5% position. So if a few things like that go horribly wrong at once, it won't be the end of the world.