You live in Thailand. All countries like that periodically fuck the foreigners. In a given year there’s a 5-10 chance if that happening. Can he do that with an oil company or pipeline? Sure. He can also turn off oil to Europe whenever he gets in a fight 10% yield, 5-10% chance
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
Thailand has % caps on how much stock foreigners can own. But they've never stolen the equity. I've thought of buying a couple companies, but I can't do it with my US broker account so it's not worth the effort. I understand the incentives in Thailand and would invest here.
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Replying to @orrdavid @Molson_Hart
Same for where I live (Colombia) (and I have invested here). Overly simplistic thinking that all EMs want to screw foreigners and - sadly - is part of why countries with better governance aren't adequately rewarded.
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Replying to @irbezek @Molson_Hart
Templeton did very well investing worldwide. And looking at these valuations I can see why.
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Replying to @orrdavid @Molson_Hart
Colombia's leading bank was selling for less than 7x earnings at the bottom in 2016. GDP still growing at 2%. No significant bad loans. Continuous dividend hikes back to 2002. If you make it through 2008 healthy, was 2016 really going to blow you up?
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Yet many people I talked to about it wouldn't even look at it due to country risk - despite its economy scoring ahead of much of the EU on economic freedom. And why would the government loot a bank that is tied to the country's elite?
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Im just saying there are risks. How much of their deposits are drug money? Maybe the us gets a stick up it’s ass about that and hits them with a fine. FARC is fucked but could it come back...etc etc
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @orrdavid
That's fair - and actually even more so in that they have significant market share in Panama as well so the Panama Papers/offshore stuff could have been problematic.
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I do think a country like Colombia with 50+ years of not defaulting on its debt and decades of center-right neoliberal government has earned a higher credit/trust rating than say Russia though. Still, speaking the local language certainly helps. I don't touch Russia personally.
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Replying to @irbezek @Molson_Hart
Also, just putting this in context. The Russian oil pipeline seems like ... an incredibly valuable asset. 5 times earnings? Going to think it through, but seems worth the risk. Especially with just an investment or two per country.
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You know the Kelly criterion right? Just do half Kelly on it
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @irbezek
Levered portfolio strategy is all about limiting the portfolio's overall downswings. In this case, if I buy it, it'll probably be a 5% position. So if a few things like that go horribly wrong at once, it won't be the end of the world.
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Replying to @orrdavid @Molson_Hart
I just bought a basket of Argentine stocks following the latest political collapse. Figure a third will go bankrupt/delist, a third will do ok, and one or two will go up a few thousand percent. Pretty nice risk-adjusted. Returns on a leading bank if you bought the 2001 defaultpic.twitter.com/qXBiEaIG5f
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