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Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

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Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

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    1. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Feb 15
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      Replying to @orrdavid

      What’s the yield? Basically with Russia the game is: Can I get money back before they nationalize or stop paying foreign shareholders etc

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. David Orr‏ @orrdavid Feb 15
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      For example, this company owns 90% of Russia's pipeline, a robust monopoly business. Trades at 5 times earnings. US ones seem cheap to me at 12 times earnings. And this has less debt: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TRNFP.ME?p=TRNFP.ME&.tsrc=fin-srch …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Feb 15
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      Replying to @orrdavid

      What’s there to study though? Like...the yields are good. You just pick a number out of the air and say that’s the percent chance they screw foreign shareholders. Run the math and you’re done.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. David Orr‏ @orrdavid Feb 15
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      Study how legit this is. It's been business as normal for a long time. I've heard Russia is uninvestable a couple times. But just because everyone says something doesn't make it so. I have to figure out the incentives of Putin, essentially?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Feb 15
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      Replying to @orrdavid

      You live in Thailand. All countries like that periodically fuck the foreigners. In a given year there’s a 5-10 chance if that happening. Can he do that with an oil company or pipeline? Sure. He can also turn off oil to Europe whenever he gets in a fight 10% yield, 5-10% chance

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. David Orr‏ @orrdavid Feb 15
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      Thailand has % caps on how much stock foreigners can own. But they've never stolen the equity. I've thought of buying a couple companies, but I can't do it with my US broker account so it's not worth the effort. I understand the incentives in Thailand and would invest here.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Ian Bezek‏ @irbezek Feb 15
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      Replying to @orrdavid @Molson_Hart

      Same for where I live (Colombia) (and I have invested here). Overly simplistic thinking that all EMs want to screw foreigners and - sadly - is part of why countries with better governance aren't adequately rewarded.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. David Orr‏ @orrdavid Feb 15
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      Replying to @irbezek @Molson_Hart

      Templeton did very well investing worldwide. And looking at these valuations I can see why.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. Ian Bezek‏ @irbezek Feb 15
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      Replying to @orrdavid @Molson_Hart

      Colombia's leading bank was selling for less than 7x earnings at the bottom in 2016. GDP still growing at 2%. No significant bad loans. Continuous dividend hikes back to 2002. If you make it through 2008 healthy, was 2016 really going to blow you up? $CIB

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Ian Bezek‏ @irbezek Feb 15
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      Replying to @irbezek @orrdavid @Molson_Hart

      Yet many people I talked to about it wouldn't even look at it due to country risk - despite its economy scoring ahead of much of the EU on economic freedom. And why would the government loot a bank that is tied to the country's elite?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Feb 15
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      Replying to @irbezek @orrdavid

      Im just saying there are risks. How much of their deposits are drug money? Maybe the us gets a stick up it’s ass about that and hits them with a fine. FARC is fucked but could it come back...etc etc

      8:25 AM - 15 Feb 2020
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Ian Bezek‏ @irbezek Feb 15
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          Replying to @Molson_Hart @orrdavid

          That's fair - and actually even more so in that they have significant market share in Panama as well so the Panama Papers/offshore stuff could have been problematic.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Ian Bezek‏ @irbezek Feb 15
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          Replying to @irbezek @Molson_Hart @orrdavid

          I do think a country like Colombia with 50+ years of not defaulting on its debt and decades of center-right neoliberal government has earned a higher credit/trust rating than say Russia though. Still, speaking the local language certainly helps. I don't touch Russia personally.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. 18 more replies
        1. David Orr‏ @orrdavid Feb 15
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          Replying to @Molson_Hart @irbezek

          In Thailand the biggest risk is the government gets overthrown and the people loot the assets. I think that's really unlikely though. It's way more likely they either hold power or relinquish it slowly. Nice thing about betting with the king is nobody is going to defraud him.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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