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Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

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Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

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    1. David Orr‏ @orrdavid Feb 15
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      Anyone have an opinion on Russia investing? The oil majors pay 10%+ dividends and are growing. Considering they're actually paying shareholders, it doesn't seem like a scam. Stuff like $SNGSP seems absurdly cheap.

      8 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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    2. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Feb 15
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      Replying to @orrdavid

      What’s the yield? Basically with Russia the game is: Can I get money back before they nationalize or stop paying foreign shareholders etc

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. David Orr‏ @orrdavid Feb 15
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      For example, this company owns 90% of Russia's pipeline, a robust monopoly business. Trades at 5 times earnings. US ones seem cheap to me at 12 times earnings. And this has less debt: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TRNFP.ME?p=TRNFP.ME&.tsrc=fin-srch …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Feb 15
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      Replying to @orrdavid

      What’s there to study though? Like...the yields are good. You just pick a number out of the air and say that’s the percent chance they screw foreign shareholders. Run the math and you’re done.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. David Orr‏ @orrdavid Feb 15
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      Study how legit this is. It's been business as normal for a long time. I've heard Russia is uninvestable a couple times. But just because everyone says something doesn't make it so. I have to figure out the incentives of Putin, essentially?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Feb 15
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      Replying to @orrdavid

      You live in Thailand. All countries like that periodically fuck the foreigners. In a given year there’s a 5-10 chance if that happening. Can he do that with an oil company or pipeline? Sure. He can also turn off oil to Europe whenever he gets in a fight 10% yield, 5-10% chance

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Feb 15
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @orrdavid

      Of it going to zero. Let’s say 5% chance I’d blow up with 10% yield (100-5%)^10 is your chance of recouping your investment = 59% plus you have the additional chance that stock rises in between now and then and you sell. With oil at these prices looks not bad but you need to

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Feb 15
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @orrdavid

      Kelly criterion it so you don’t lose your shirt

      8:12 AM - 15 Feb 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. David Orr‏ @orrdavid Feb 15
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          Replying to @Molson_Hart

          Yeah I'd bet like 5-10% max in a given non-US country.

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