Coronavirus is stoking inflation in China. Seems plausible it could push up costs here, too.https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/inflation-in-china-is-running-rampant-because-of-the-coronavirus.html …
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As you know I'm sure, there's a 1-3 month lag between what happens to Chinese supply and what happens here, depending on the product. That said, while everything points to inflation, I'm wise enough to realize that economies are too complex for me to predict.
Will we see inflation in prices of cruise ship and airline supplies? What about movie theatres and gyms? Supply shocks, demand shocks, government with it's finger on the guarantee-this, print money-that trigger. Too complex.
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We see the relative effects of the demand and supply shocks in China, and inflation is surging there. The US is more exposed to the inflationary supply shock and less to the deflationary demand shock. But I agree these things are hard to predict.
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Food prices are going up. How about restaurants and movie theatre tickets? I agree that signs are definitely pointing to increased CPI but (repeating myself) I find it just too difficult to sort out.
End of conversation
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