Coronavirus is stoking inflation in China. Seems plausible it could push up costs here, too.https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/inflation-in-china-is-running-rampant-because-of-the-coronavirus.html …
So hard to predict these things. On the one hand, holders of inventory, unable to get more, will raise prices. On the other hand, demand may collapse.
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Demand doesn't seem to have changed here in the US whereas supply has suffered a severe but hopefully transient shock. If coronavirus gets much worse but is largely contained to China (base case scenario IMO), prices of exports will surge.
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As you know I'm sure, there's a 1-3 month lag between what happens to Chinese supply and what happens here, depending on the product. That said, while everything points to inflation, I'm wise enough to realize that economies are too complex for me to predict.
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