Maybe no one wants to be the first person to sell, and they're looking for sentiment to turn. In the USA, coronavirus gets no media coverage relative to its seriousness. We shall see.
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My gut reaction is stupidity. Underestimating what a few weeks (or possible more) delay in supply chain means. Not to mention a possible black swan pandemic
To see the negative potential of the coronavirus you need to understand some math: 1. The math of exponents. r0 = 2 mean: 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64 ... 4096 etc. 2. If there's a 99% chance of a full quarantine but you have 100 infections, you have a 64% chance that virus gets out.
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Narrative will flip. First death in Japan and its pretty clear that they have a bunch of idiopathic infections.
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If you've ever been on a subway train in Tokyo, it is basically inconceivable that only 28 people are infected, but hey...
I guess they have an olympics to plan for. - 1 more reply
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A paper from Los Alamos National Laboratory scientists two days ago suggest the R₀ is between 4.7 and 6.6. It's not yet peer reviewed and I'm currently doing my own independent review of the paper. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf …
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How is it? I skimmed the abstract.
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