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I feel like, so far, I've had a pretty good read on the coronavirus so let me make some predictions (please disagree where applicable!): 1. The disease is too infectious to be contained and it is too late. The British guy from Singapore shows that clearly.
2. If a kid died of coronavirus we would've heard about it already. There are studies out there saying it that mostly kills old people. The youngest person I've heard die was hero Dr. Li Wenliang and the locals wanted that guy to die so I wouldn't take much from itpic.twitter.com/PSazTjhHh2
3. The virus is going to come in waves in every country. It'll looked under control, then some clown will go to a new city and restart the epidemic. Just like Spanish flu. You can't ban travelers from every single country and that's basically what needs to be done at this point.
4. The virus will go at very different speeds in different countries and the damage it does will be different. Countries like Indonesia won't have the money or expertise to keep their people alive, but they also don't have as many old people die.
5. They also won't be able to lock down the country has so it'll spread like wildfire. India, Indonesia, Cambodia, all of Africa, parts of South America are like this. The other big determinant of speed of transmission will be density. Dense countries get to full infection faster
6. We're going to be hearing about the coronavirus for a long time. It takes time for one person to infect others and then once infections in an area or country reach critical mass the area will be shut down which will slow transmission, but likely not enough to contain it.
7. In a weird way, I could see chickenpox-like parties for kids. People are going to go crazy over the next year as this plays out. People may just try to get it because they're so sick of being stuck inside.
8. No one wants to see people die, so if you're government and I'm right that the virus at this point can't be contained, it's all about delaying it until a vaccine can be developed and then reach big production.
9. Coronavirus will massively shift people towards working at home. All but essential services and package delivery will switch to work at home. This may create resentment amongst those who are forced to take risks for those get to stay at home. It aligns with class-conflict.
10. Okay I'm spent. My main takeaway is, notwithstanding the specter of death of ourselves and relatives, we are going to get sooooo sick of hearing about this soon. It's a unique time in history. We have a pandemic, but we can slow it down because of communications technology.
Let's look at how I could be wrong: A. Fast vaccine creation (doubt it) B. A cocktail of current drugs work C. Asian people are materially more susceptible (the bioweapon to make China's population younger thesis)
D. I'm extrapolating from super spreaders. The British guy open-mouth coughed everywhere and hugged everyone. Seems unlikely based on Singapore tracing E. China has no idea how to treat people. Well, if that's true, how are Indonesia and India going to handle this?
Another prediction: Every country in this world has an unspoken disdain for China. It’s often not fair and the United States has a history of big fuckups (assuming not deliberate), but China’s conduct in many areas is obnoxious. Look at WANG Yi’s comments for example.https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1228435515776667649 …
If it turns out they covered this up and fucked the world in the process we are going to see really big anti-China sentiment. It’s the straw that breaks the camels back. Could also see a reaction to Chinese people not dissimilar to Arab Muslims post 9/11. Hopefully not.
If #COVID19 is as infectious and as hearty as it looks (why are there no infections in Thailand?), here's how it will play out:
We will have rotating outbreaks over the next 1-2 years until we get herd immunity. New York with get the bug. New York will get quarantined.
Because containment is impossible, Philadelphia will get the bug, Philadelphia will get quarantined (no mass gatherings, telecommuting, etc.), and then, because total containment is impossible, New York will get reinfected, New York will be requarantined etc.
The name of the game is delay as much as we can because: 1. The virus is exponential and hospital beds, masks, pills, doctors, nurses etc. are not 2. We need to buy time until we can get a vaccine 3. We can't do full quarantine everywhere all-the-time to kill the bug.
3 is politically impossible, practically impossible, and oh yeah, society would shut down and cease to function. Going to be a fun 1-2 years!
Some would argue that it might be better to just let the virus do its thing, but that would result in a total overwhelming of our limited capacity hospitals, which would increase the mortality rate unnecessarily. I have a lot of fear and empathy for hospital workers right now:
They may have grueling hours, and worse, it looks like they seem to get the disease no matter what and it's particularly fatal for them. I wonder if there's some sort of relationship between the "amount" of exposure and severity not dissimilar to the idea of HIV+ vs. AIDS.
WHO has to call this thing a pandemic on Monday (though they might not because there are some financial implications) and, while I don't like to bet against mean reversion, people are going to freak out on Monday.https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/pandemic-bond-debate-inside-look-world-bank-coronavirus-relief-investment-2020-2-1028906657 …
For management of #Covid19 I think there’s one critical number:
New infections per local hospital bed.
There’s a threshold below which our medical system does not collapse. We need to stay below it. When we approach it, we need to quarantine until new infections subside.
After infections subside, the area will get reinfected and the cycle will repeat. Unless the virus mutates to become worse, each success peak will be lower because more and more people will be locally immune. I think this method is the best way to address limited health
Care capacity but also people’s’ desires to not be cooped up in their homes for a year. Quarantine. Return to normalcy. Quarantine. Return to normalcy. Delay delay delay, until we have a vaccine. You can’t just “accept this risk”. Too many people will die becaus everyone will
Hit the hospital system at the same time, reducing overall care for covid but also every other ailment in the hospital.
Not so much a prediction as something I'd like to be true, but anyways:
#COVID19 will be America's second sputnik moment. We will be so embarrassed by our incompetence relative to China, that we will start reinvesting in science and industry once again!
@molson_hart Apologies for those who get to see this for nth time...had to throw it on my predictions thread.https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1237533313213972482 …
You can believe that China has turned around a terrible situation, perhaps reaching a (temporary) steady-state, but the idea that China only had 33 cases on March 11th is comedy. Too many people going in and out. Too many in general. Social distancing works, but not perfectly.pic.twitter.com/amC14MubXP
5 deaths in the philippines, infections in Singapore chugging along, lots of cases in Bahrain, Egypt, and KSA "Warm-weather will fix it" hypothesis gets weaker and weaker.https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1236344074459918339 …
Will humidity? Probably not. Path to containment is social distancing. We've seen so in China and South Korea. Everything else is probably magical thinking.https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1237614708930367489 …
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