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Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

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Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

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    1. Brad Setser‏ @Brad_Setser Feb 9
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      Brad Setser Retweeted bob davis

      Vietnam. Absolutely. Mexico? Not really (1/x)https://twitter.com/bobdavis187/status/1226717535107575808 …

      Brad Setser added,

      bob davisVerified account @bobdavis187
      Who won the US-China trade war of the past two years? Vietnam and Mexico. https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-china-trade-war-reshaped-global-commerce-11581244201 …
      5 replies 24 retweets 57 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Brad Setser‏ @Brad_Setser Feb 9
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      US goods imports from Mexico are higher in 2019 than in 2018 (as the WSJ notes). But as tariffs increased and US imports from China fell, the growth in imports from Mexico also slowed. 2/xpic.twitter.com/GBJmcdOBv5

      1 reply 5 retweets 15 likes
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    3. Brad Setser‏ @Brad_Setser Feb 9
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      US imports from the key ASEAN countries (but essentially Vietnam) has gotten stronger as imports from China fell. But growth in imports from Mexico has been more correlated with growth in imports from China. 3/xpic.twitter.com/Vgmju9edkS

      1 reply 6 retweets 11 likes
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    4. Brad Setser‏ @Brad_Setser Feb 9
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      Mexico exports a lot more autos than consumer electronics, so the overlap with China isn't perfect. And so far at least weakness in US demand for goods has had a bigger impact on Mexico than substitution away from China 4/xhttps://www.ft.com/content/eb4e29da-0fad-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a …

      2 replies 8 retweets 10 likes
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    5. Brad Setser‏ @Brad_Setser Feb 9
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      In all honesty, this has surprised me -- I expected Mexico to be a bigger winner (peso is weak). But the growth in US imports from Mexico in the last few months has been lower than it was before the trade war with China. 5/xpic.twitter.com/77FTC9A5zi

      5 replies 4 retweets 12 likes
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    6. Brad Setser‏ @Brad_Setser Feb 9
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      This could change of course -- But for now, the data seems fairly clear. The intensification of the trade war with China over the summer of 19 hasn't generated positive spillovers to Mexico. 6/6

      5 replies 7 retweets 11 likes
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      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Feb 9
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      Replying to @Brad_Setser

      Further evidence in support of Vietnam winning the trade war. Too bad they have the population of 70% of guangdong province haha

      10:34 PM - 9 Feb 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Feb 9
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          Replying to @Molson_Hart @Brad_Setser

          Molson Hart Retweeted Molson Hart

          https://twitter.com/molson_hart/status/1225153958177624070?s=21 …https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1225153958177624070 …

          Molson Hart added,

          Molson Hart @Molson_Hart
          Change in total goods trade with the United States Vietnam is crushing it (from a much smaller base of course) https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-trade-deficit-narrowed-in-2019-for-first-time-in-six-years-11580909498?reflink=e2twmkts … pic.twitter.com/R5imO5Adly
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