Molson Hart

The new Aus->EU service is a red ocean right now with many carriers adding service in the past few years. It wouldn't surprise me to see big gaps there versus SAT or other Texas cities.

Never heard red ocean before. You’re saying that eu->aus is a developed route with competition, whereas San Antonio to eu is not?

It's the inverse of "Blue Ocean" theory (you carve out a niche where there is no competition -- Southwest airlines and Cirque de Soleil are examples). I'm saying the opposite. SAT->EU is stablized (you have to connect and service has been stable as-is for awhile) /1

AUS->EU has a ton of new entrants running planes to LHR/AMS/FRA/CDG/etc. It hasn't shaken out how many of those will be profitable (if any). My suspicion is supply has outrun demand -> price cuts -> red ocean.

SAT->LHR is supposedly the #1 underserved international route not covered by a nonstop yet. That's what I heard so ymmv!

(Blue ocean theory is a book btw. Decent idea mediocre book if you ask me. Liked 7 Powers better for sure.)

I get what you're saying now. Thanks! Sounds like one of those books that should be a blogpost.

I think that's 95% of conceptual business books, sad to say. We need to bring paid pamphlets back if you ask me. (though arguably that's what substack is.)