Molson Hart

Well that’s the Catch 22 isn’t it? Unless you’re in a position to get unsecured capital, you’re going to have to collateralize with assets. Assets that, if your prediction comes about, will likely take massive valuation hits and you risk you debt being called.

Banks call HELOCs when house valuations fall? I can get debt from amazon without a personal guarantee collateralized weakly to inventory. I think I can get a line from my bank that is uncollateralized (but personally guaranteed).

Almost every collateralized loan has a clause buried in that allows the lender to call. Doesn’t mean they necessarily would. Just something to consider. Uncollateralized is likely the best route, but may not allow you to leverage as much. Debt service costs may also be higher.

I’m pretty sure any line of credit I have access to has the right to call as well. Where’s the best place to find incallable loans?

Bond markets?

Brb, doing a bond offering.

I'm reminded of Sam Zell's raising of (the first?) vulture fund in the late 80s early 90s to take advantage of the impending crisis in real estate. Maybe that's the best way.

A mental model I’ve been toying with recently is: - to find an emergent business idea - identify a trend (ex: “Millenials don’t watch news!”) - then apply that to an industry (ex: “CPG want to sell to millenials”) - ask what will that industry need to buy to counter?