Molson Hart

The virus goes global so a domestic supplier of whatever isn’t going to get you far. 5. Less densely populated, better medical care, and countries with fewer old people will perform much better. USA is in a great position.

6. Unless government steps in, medical insurers will have problems. A week in icu with ventilation is conservatively $70k. Multiply that by 1 million people. It’s like 2-3x hurricane Andrew.

7. A lot of old people will die. After we get through this thing we’ll all say “that was terrible but boy was it good for our economies/govt budgets”. Old folks homes will empty out big time. Diabetics and obese will perish in large numbers.

8. we should see the typical bullshit where the feds give money to banks to restimulate the economy. Drop in asset prices will be short lived. They will have to offer loans to many types of industries. Get in before that happens and you’ll do all right

In summary, get cash, don’t die, and time your purchase. END! This is my first economic crisis that I’ve lived through as a non-student. What did I get wrong? What I miss? What’s the fastest way for me to get access to debt capital now?

Well that’s the Catch 22 isn’t it? Unless you’re in a position to get unsecured capital, you’re going to have to collateralize with assets. Assets that, if your prediction comes about, will likely take massive valuation hits and you risk you debt being called.

Banks call HELOCs when house valuations fall? I can get debt from amazon without a personal guarantee collateralized weakly to inventory. I think I can get a line from my bank that is uncollateralized (but personally guaranteed).

Almost every collateralized loan has a clause buried in that allows the lender to call. Doesn’t mean they necessarily would. Just something to consider. Uncollateralized is likely the best route, but may not allow you to leverage as much. Debt service costs may also be higher.