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Me as well. Hold me accountable if I get this wrong, but I am increasingly confident that this virus is a worldwide pandemic. It's just going to take a while to get rolling. One person infects ~4 in dense Asia, but it takes like 7-10 days for that to happen.
Let's say R0 = 3 in the United States and it takes 10 days. We have 11 patients now. It will take 2 months for us to get to 10,000 confirmed infections. I also see no end whatsoever to supply disruptions in Asia.
We'll see, I guess. Plenty of diseases with higher R0 than that didn't turn into global pandemics afaict.
Lot of people got sick on this one, but it had a low mortality rate so it didn't matter much. We'll see what happens with this one. World is denser and more connected than ever "It is estimated that 11–21% of the global population contracted [swine flu] and 151,700–575400 died."pic.twitter.com/T18hhi4v9P
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