Molson Hart

Interesting that there are no reported deaths from coronavirus outside of China for 100 cases so far. Dumb crude calculation: Odds of no deaths assuming a 2% fatality rate for 100 cases is 13%. If we go a week without anyone outside of China dying, the panic will subside.

It was a back of the envelope calculation, but I disagree with it quite a bit: 1. Selection bias (people who travel are of better health than those who don't) 2. Time lags on deaths 3. The whole thing is basically totally unpredictable Asymmetric downside to markets.

The selection bias could go the other way: The sickest are most likely to get medical attention once landed. Lots of healthy people who had exposure (and may be carriers) haven't been screened for the virus in the US, Canada, etc. Agree re: time lag.

Not simple to work out this question! Correct me if I'm wrong, but your argument is that if no one dies in the next week in the US, we can be quite sure that the fatality rate is much lower than we thought and thus, the virus is a non-issue.

I'm saying that the people most likely to die are those who are not those who will fly, so it will take some time before we start seeing deaths in the US. China has one selection bias (not enough tests). The US has another (people who fly are more likely to get tested).

Either way, I still think this panic is going to last a lot longer than 1 week, even if we get no deaths in the USA. It can explode in a country like India for example and then we are back at step 1.

I agree. Even if coronavirus isn't as deadly as feared, it could still have huge economic impacts. People will avoid going out, travel, etc. I think this virus is a bigger deal than the trade war when it comes to global economic growth.