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Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

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Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

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    1. Samuel Lee‏ @svrnco Jan 31
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      Interesting that there are no reported deaths from coronavirus outside of China for 100 cases so far. Dumb crude calculation: Odds of no deaths assuming a 2% fatality rate for 100 cases is 13%. If we go a week without anyone outside of China dying, the panic will subside.

      2 replies 2 retweets 15 likes
    2. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Jan 31
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      Replying to @svrnco

      It was a back of the envelope calculation, but I disagree with it quite a bit: 1. Selection bias (people who travel are of better health than those who don't) 2. Time lags on deaths 3. The whole thing is basically totally unpredictable Asymmetric downside to markets.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    3. Samuel Lee‏ @svrnco Jan 31
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      The selection bias could go the other way: The sickest are most likely to get medical attention once landed. Lots of healthy people who had exposure (and may be carriers) haven't been screened for the virus in the US, Canada, etc. Agree re: time lag.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Wes Gray  🇺🇸 🗽‏Verified account @alphaarchitect Jan 31
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      Replying to @svrnco @Molson_Hart

      There are probably a 1,000+ people who died from a heart attack taking a sh#$ in the morning. #saliencybias

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart Jan 31
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      Replying to @alphaarchitect @svrnco

      Molson Hart Retweeted Molson Hart

      https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1222672004731588608 … Heart attacks ain't contagious.

      Molson Hart added,

      Molson Hart @Molson_Hart
      Saying today that we shouldn't be worried about the coronavirus outbreak because the flu kills many more people every year is like saying on 9/11/2001 after one plane hit that we shouldn't be worried about terrorism because more people die from airplane mechanical failure.
      12:55 PM - 31 Jan 2020
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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