Interesting that there are no reported deaths from coronavirus outside of China for 100 cases so far. Dumb crude calculation: Odds of no deaths assuming a 2% fatality rate for 100 cases is 13%. If we go a week without anyone outside of China dying, the panic will subside.
-
I'm saying that the people most likely to die are those who are not those who will fly, so it will take some time before we start seeing deaths in the US. China has one selection bias (not enough tests). The US has another (people who fly are more likely to get tested).
Either way, I still think this panic is going to last a lot longer than 1 week, even if we get no deaths in the USA. It can explode in a country like India for example and then we are back at step 1.
-
-
I agree. Even if coronavirus isn't as deadly as feared, it could still have huge economic impacts. People will avoid going out, travel, etc. I think this virus is a bigger deal than the trade war when it comes to global economic growth.
-
Agreed. Perhaps as much as 5-10x. Maybe even more.
- 3 more replies
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.