4. Chinese New Year has been extended 3 days. Economically alone, this is a HUGE deal. Huge supply disruptions. Huge demand disruptions. Crazy.
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I am totally confused by the lack of response to the Corona-virus in the United States. 1. It transmits before patients become aware that they are sick 2. 5 million people left Wuhan (chinese new year migration) before the city was quarantined 3. China is taking drastic measures
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There are what, 5 reported cases in the US? What would you expect the action to be? I assume CDC is coordinating vaccine research, which will take a while, but what would you want done?
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Shut off flights from all of China a couple of days ago. Temperature testing (not perfect but better than nothing) at airports from countries at risk.
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I think it’s more deadly and more infectious based on early numbers, and those both tend to be underestimated in early days of these things, so that’s what makes it very risky.
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Agreed, it’s definitely very low probability. It’s just super catastrophic if it does spread. I couldn’t quickly find the numbers I’d seen before, but something like 0.1% fatal vs 3% fatal and 1.4 people infected by each person with the disease vs 3 people infected
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All that being said, I’m much less certain that restricting travel to the US is justified. Checking temps on arrival makes sense to me, but probably not enough equipment to do it in any way other than narrowly targeted
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