Molson Hart

$HA Hawaiian Airlines: Pros: Near book value Low debt 6x earnings 3x ops cash flow 20% ROE Cons: CEO compensated for growth Airline biz isn't wonderful Overall, seems stupidly cheap down here. Today's sell off is from the virus outbreak in China, ~200 infected so far.

It’s not in the top 10 by market share for domestic flights right? Okay it’s the biggest airline for Hawaii flights and it’s got a brand but airlines ain’t railroads so other bigger players can add capacity no? Finally it has catastrophic downside risk that no other airline has!

(Suspenseful Drum Roll Plays) Unlike any other US airline (besides perhaps Alaska) it is highly susceptible to prolonged cessation of operations from Volcano. If you have an Eykenfiljdjdlls (spelling) Iceland Volcano issue in volcanic Hawaii the airline is in big trouble

Appears I may be wrong. The Iceland volcano was under ice and this somehow made it worse? Anyways, they’re still super concentrated in volatile Hawaii https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_travel_disruption_after_the_2010_Eyjafjallaj%C3%B6kull_eruption …

I didn't think of the volcano risk, but that seems true. I agreed about Hawaii being volatile. Won't an expensive vacation be the first thing people cut in a recession? On the other hand, they remained profitable during the financial crisis.

717s aren't produces anymore and are in limited supply. This seems like a lasting advantage. Southwest $LUV is finally trying to compete on these flights, but seems $HA still has an advantage.