In recent months, rising US imports from the rest of Asia have not come close to offsetting the fall in US imports from China. https://www.cfr.org/blog/more-trade-destruction-trade-diversion-right-now …pic.twitter.com/DuiHRMWr5w
CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure
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In recent months, rising US imports from the rest of Asia have not come close to offsetting the fall in US imports from China. https://www.cfr.org/blog/more-trade-destruction-trade-diversion-right-now …pic.twitter.com/DuiHRMWr5w
The non-petrol deficit in calendar 19 is likely to be about equal to the non-petrol deficit in calendar 18. But the deficit clearly fell in q4 (annualized, q4 imports are about $60b below their q1-q3 level). The question is why?pic.twitter.com/u90v0gB8GJ
The tariff escalation has had a big impact on trade with China (see the FT's Trade Secrets, or my first chart). But imports from non-tariffed trading partners are also down. GM strike? Something unique to Canada (which has had weak exports)? Weak capex including in oil?pic.twitter.com/XHfAL9p1Ck
Obviously, this reflects weakness in the goods consuming part of the US economy -- as US manufacturing has also been weak. Just as weak US exports reflect weakness in global demand for tradables (and Boeing's problems).
I don't expect the current rather extreme weakness in overall US imports to be sustained in 2020. But the fall in q4 is big enough that I don't think it can just be written off as a data blip.
Definitely looks like consumer weakness. I considered the possibility of rerouting through canada (not on the list) but I doubt it can explain such a huge drop.
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