Molson Hart

Charlie, why is Ethiopia running into debt issues but China didn’t? Because China has, up until this point been better about securing foreign currency through exports?

Primarily because China cut its fertility rate below 3 in the 1970s, so its savings and banking system were larger so it could self-finance investment (which led to export orientated makifacturimg base). Ethiopia’s fertility rate is still around 4 (too high)

how would a lower fertility rate lead to a larger savings and banking system

I had same question myself. I think, through a demographic dividend. For example, if you have a society with few old and children everyone is extremely productive. The old and children spend without producing. With few old and young, the productive middle saves.

Saving seems more culture than demographics. The Asians countries have always had higher saving rates. lowering fertility would seem to just create a smaller, but still inefficient, population, Shrinking savings and banking