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Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

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Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

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    1. David Orr‏ @orrdavid 5 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      Hah, awesome. Glad we see eye to eye on $BBBY and $EXPR. The short thesis seems simple/good for both. Hard to say when the market wakes up but that saying is often true: Stocks take the stairs up and elevators down. Spread your bets enough and the variance is fine.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 5 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @orrdavid

      I thought the death of retail was going to come much faster than it has. Might be fun to list all the companies that are structurally (in terms of biz model, I don’t know their debt levels) fucked. Afaict anything that is not: 1. Driving massive volume 2. Low low low price

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    3. David Orr‏ @orrdavid 5 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      A subtle thing is that after one goes under their customers start go to another store. Which is awesome because I get to short them one after another. $CBL just had to cut their dividend - crappy quality malls. Next up on the chopping block: $WPG, the next crappiest one!

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 5 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @orrdavid

      Is there a good way within twitter to know what these acronyms stand for? I have to google each one and on my phone it’s a pia

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. dean collins‏ @deancollins 5 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @orrdavid

      @Molson_Hart $WPG is a NYSE mall REIT stock. Its paying out a crazy dividend because 65m+ shares think they are going to cut the dividend......and other investors like me think the shorts are getting hosed.... and amazonification is over estimated. (disclosure Im long long WPG)

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 5 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @deancollins @orrdavid

      Thanks Dean. They don't look like high end malls. I wouldn't be long $WPG. I'd gtfo of that trade.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. dean collins‏ @deancollins 5 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @orrdavid

      Thanks for your advice.....noted and ignored :)

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    8. dean collins‏ @deancollins 5 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @deancollins @Molson_Hart @orrdavid

      Dont take it personally @Molson_Hart - but im currently at 39% for my trades for the year. But we'll see how we end up with 15 more trading days to go.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 5 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @deancollins @orrdavid

      Bravo - I'm not at all and glad to see you're not as well :) I'm no stock trader, just an operator.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. dean collins‏ @deancollins 5 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @orrdavid

      BTW good article here about why im long $WPG - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4310902-reit-preferreds-8_5minus-9-yields-thanks-to-sympathy-drop-from-washington-prime-and … even though there are 65m shares short.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 5 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @deancollins @orrdavid

      Is this thesis as follows: 1. People think CBl and wpg are the same and thus $cbl is dropping 2. $wpg income comes from high end malls now anyways 3. The way $wpg has structured their debt, if their tier b malls fail the lenders won’t be able to go after their tier a malls?

      3:01 PM - 5 Dec 2019
      • 1 Like
      • David Orr
      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Ian Bezek‏ @irbezek 5 Dec 2019
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          Replying to @Molson_Hart @deancollins @orrdavid

          $WPG doesn't have "high end malls". It has a few nicer open-air (outdoor) shopping centers along with its decaying B-tier enclosed malls. WPG's sales per sq ft for its malls are on par with $CBL around $400. Same biz, same NOI decline rate.

          1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
        3. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 5 Dec 2019
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          Replying to @irbezek @deancollins @orrdavid

          When I was on their website every mall on their site was trash, fwiw

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. 11 more replies
        1. David Orr‏ @orrdavid 5 Dec 2019
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          Replying to @Molson_Hart @deancollins

          I think long term it's possible it could be a good bet, if it got cheap enough. I think the time to make that bet is after the dividend is cut, though. Share price always irrationally collapses when that happens.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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