B&M retail apparel not using Zara/Uniqlo/H&M manufacturing methods are not viable.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
I'm pretty confidently short here - especially because I think their shirts are the worst. Investors put way too much hope into these turnarounds. We both see -2% compared to -6% last year. They see an improvement. I see yet another decline, the last thing they need.
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Replying to @orrdavid
So long as they are not fucking with the numbers or they don’t get weirdly lucky in some way (kardashian wears some top they have) you should be good.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
What specifically do the fast fashion brands do differently? I don't know how Uniqlo does it, but they have much higher quality at a third the price of
$EXPR. Not even in the same ballpark, I think.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @orrdavid
Generally (excluding Ralph Lauren collared shirts), what will sell season to season is highly unpredictable, so the fast fashion companies make smaller runs of everything until they see a winner. Early high sales are a consistent indicator of season-long high sales, so after
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @orrdavid
Seeing a positive signal they bet big. They’ve set their supply chain to be as fast possible. In some cases they’ll buy huge amounts of fabric in advance and just make different designs with it until one hits. They don’t make orders with factories, they instead book production
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
Thanks for the input. Despite not being into stock investing, you've got really great insights.
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Replying to @orrdavid
Thanks. This overlaps quite a bit with an area that im supposed to know (retail and sewing) so it’s easy to sound wise/smart on the topic. Talk to me about something else you’ll quickly take back your statement...maybe haha
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
Hah, awesome. Glad we see eye to eye on
$BBBY and$EXPR. The short thesis seems simple/good for both. Hard to say when the market wakes up but that saying is often true: Stocks take the stairs up and elevators down. Spread your bets enough and the variance is fine.1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @orrdavid
I thought the death of retail was going to come much faster than it has. Might be fun to list all the companies that are structurally (in terms of biz model, I don’t know their debt levels) fucked. Afaict anything that is not: 1. Driving massive volume 2. Low low low price
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3. Selling perishable food
4. Convenience
5. Pay to enter experiential
6. Luxury
7. Auto
8. Unshippable I.e. pipes from $HDX
I’m probably forgetting some and I’d say that many of the above will go ecom, it will just take more time and 2 recessions for them to die off.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
I've thought about 3. a lot. I agree people like picking fresh food in stores. Competitive advantage of a fresh only store is no wasted space. On the other hand, there's going to be *way* too much retail space. So maybe that's a moot point. If so,
$KR seems cheap.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @orrdavid
I don’t think people like picking vegetables so much as they don’t like getting rotten veggies or the worst meat cut picked by others. Whole Foods prime is an adverse selection problem. The pickers pick the worst stuff because it’s at the top because real shoppers won’t get it.
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End of conversation
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