Molson Hart

$EXPR really ran up despite continues bad results/guidance. Earnings tomorrow. The product is bad and expensive. That style of fashion has a headwind. Cash flows steadily dropping. Leases are the hidden liability.

Comp sales -5% yoy. -2% guidance for Q4 compared to -6% last year is positive. Still not the turn around needed but at least a step in the right direction. So expect some jump. They're buying back some shares which accelerates how fast this will play out, which is nice.

B&M retail apparel not using Zara/Uniqlo/H&M manufacturing methods are not viable.

I'm pretty confidently short here - especially because I think their shirts are the worst. Investors put way too much hope into these turnarounds. We both see -2% compared to -6% last year. They see an improvement. I see yet another decline, the last thing they need.

So long as they are not fucking with the numbers or they don’t get weirdly lucky in some way (kardashian wears some top they have) you should be good.

What specifically do the fast fashion brands do differently? I don't know how Uniqlo does it, but they have much higher quality at a third the price of $EXPR. Not even in the same ballpark, I think.

Generally (excluding Ralph Lauren collared shirts), what will sell season to season is highly unpredictable, so the fast fashion companies make smaller runs of everything until they see a winner. Early high sales are a consistent indicator of season-long high sales, so after

Seeing a positive signal they bet big. They’ve set their supply chain to be as fast possible. In some cases they’ll buy huge amounts of fabric in advance and just make different designs with it until one hits. They don’t make orders with factories, they instead book production