The reason the bonds are lower is because their cost of funds are higher. So, no, the overall gains are economically 0.
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Replying to @nntaleb
If they don’t have to issue new debt or equity, it’s a profitable transaction; I sell a promise to pay $100 for $97. 1 year later market incorrectly values the promise at $50. I buy it back. I’ve made $47. I wouldn’t make this a country’s economic plan, but it is profitable.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
You don't get it. Where will you get the funds to buy it back fromm? By borrowing at 20%
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Replying to @nntaleb
I do get it. I’m making a technical point which does not change the general correctness of your statement, but I’m nonetheless still right. Borrow $97, promise to pay $100. Buy back for $50. Keep $47. Provides no need for additional financing, it works.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
No, you still don't get it. If you don't need additional financing your bonds would NOT be at 20%.
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Replying to @nntaleb
I do get it and now you’re making me mad. I keep telling you that under the following conditions it is mathematically profitable and you keep ignoring my statement cite different conditions. Markets are volatile and misappraise as you know better than I.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
"Under the following conditions", bonds would not be at 20%. You need to try to think before making statements in finance. Study some finance.
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Replying to @nntaleb
Out of respect for you and your work I will try to explain one last time. Also, I would appreciate it if you didn’t go ad hominem on me while knowing NOTHInG about what I have studied or who I am. 1. Country A needs money so they decide to sell $100 10y bonds at $97
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
Let us stop. I don't play games with counterfactuals and "ifs". Your reasoning means every bond trading at discount & every stock trading lower should be treated as a profit for the issuer. Stop now.
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Replying to @nntaleb @Molson_Hart
Wowzer, never seen you show so much patience to an imbecile but he still didn't get it.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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