If they don’t have to issue new debt or equity, it’s a profitable transaction; I sell a promise to pay $100 for $97. 1 year later market incorrectly values the promise at $50. I buy it back. I’ve made $47. I wouldn’t make this a country’s economic plan, but it is profitable.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
You don't get it. Where will you get the funds to buy it back fromm? By borrowing at 20%
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Replying to @nntaleb
I do get it. I’m making a technical point which does not change the general correctness of your statement, but I’m nonetheless still right. Borrow $97, promise to pay $100. Buy back for $50. Keep $47. Provides no need for additional financing, it works.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @Molson_Hart
No, you still don't get it. If you don't need additional financing your bonds would NOT be at 20%.
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Replying to @nntaleb
I do get it and now you’re making me mad. I keep telling you that under the following conditions it is mathematically profitable and you keep ignoring my statement cite different conditions. Markets are volatile and misappraise as you know better than I.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @Molson_Hart
"Under the following conditions", bonds would not be at 20%. You need to try to think before making statements in finance. Study some finance.
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Replying to @nntaleb
Out of respect for you and your work I will try to explain one last time. Also, I would appreciate it if you didn’t go ad hominem on me while knowing NOTHInG about what I have studied or who I am. 1. Country A needs money so they decide to sell $100 10y bonds at $97
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
Let us stop. I don't play games with counterfactuals and "ifs". Your reasoning means every bond trading at discount & every stock trading lower should be treated as a profit for the issuer. Stop now.
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Replying to @nntaleb
Nope, that’s not my reasoning. Read the rest of what I wrote and just agree because I am obviously correct.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @nntaleb
Dude you really don't get it. If a sovereign entity has liquidity to finance short term operations, the market would never mark these at 20% 20% is not a raw number, yield at 20% is a shitload of info abt the issuers capability
1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
Molson Hart Retweeted Molson Hart
Read my thread. https://twitter.com/molson_hart/status/1201140021077725184?s=21 …https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1201140021077725184 …
Molson Hart added,
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
Dude what you described really won't work in real life. Just when you get to the office tomorrow call any EM/local rates desk after hours, say you want to speak with Africa rates trader, give him your example and he'll do the job
0 replies 0 retweets 5 likesThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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