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Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

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Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

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    1. Nassim Nicholas Taleb‏Verified account @nntaleb 1 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      The reason the bonds are lower is because their cost of funds are higher. So, no, the overall gains are economically 0.

      1 reply 1 retweet 21 likes
    2. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 1 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @nntaleb

      If they don’t have to issue new debt or equity, it’s a profitable transaction; I sell a promise to pay $100 for $97. 1 year later market incorrectly values the promise at $50. I buy it back. I’ve made $47. I wouldn’t make this a country’s economic plan, but it is profitable.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Nassim Nicholas Taleb‏Verified account @nntaleb 1 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      You don't get it. Where will you get the funds to buy it back fromm? By borrowing at 20%

      2 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
    4. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 1 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @nntaleb

      I do get it. I’m making a technical point which does not change the general correctness of your statement, but I’m nonetheless still right. Borrow $97, promise to pay $100. Buy back for $50. Keep $47. Provides no need for additional financing, it works.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Nassim Nicholas Taleb‏Verified account @nntaleb 1 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      No, you still don't get it. If you don't need additional financing your bonds would NOT be at 20%.

      1 reply 0 retweets 18 likes
    6. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 1 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @nntaleb

      I do get it and now you’re making me mad. I keep telling you that under the following conditions it is mathematically profitable and you keep ignoring my statement cite different conditions. Markets are volatile and misappraise as you know better than I.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Nassim Nicholas Taleb‏Verified account @nntaleb 1 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      "Under the following conditions", bonds would not be at 20%. You need to try to think before making statements in finance. Study some finance.

      1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
    8. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 1 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @nntaleb

      Out of respect for you and your work I will try to explain one last time. Also, I would appreciate it if you didn’t go ad hominem on me while knowing NOTHInG about what I have studied or who I am. 1. Country A needs money so they decide to sell $100 10y bonds at $97

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 1 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @nntaleb

      2. Market buys the bond. Country A has $100. 3. 1 year later, fake news occurs or rumors are spread that country A will be unable to repay its debt, value of bond in market declines to $50. 4. Country A seeing this buys back their bond for $50. Keeps $47.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 1 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @nntaleb

      5. Country A then issues a press release and says “were financially stable and that was fake news. We are able to pay down debt and we have zero”. Market believes this. 6. Country A reissues $97 debt with promise to pay $100. Market buys it.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 1 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @nntaleb

      Country A is now in exact same situation as #1 but has an additional $47 of profit. This may not be the situation Lebanon is in but it is totally possible and similar crazy situations have occurred like in Argentina where after defaulting they sold 100 year low interest debt!

      6:10 AM - 1 Dec 2019
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Carlos‏ @Carlos95045223 1 Dec 2019
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          Replying to @Molson_Hart @nntaleb

          Ignorant. Argentina is a mess as well and there was a very short time frame when they were able to issue those bonds. But feel free to buy them, they are cheap!

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Evin Rued‏ @ohhaiimnairb 1 Dec 2019
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          Replying to @Carlos95045223 @Molson_Hart @nntaleb

          What Carlos said. If you think it’s a good investment buy all you want

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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