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Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

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Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

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    1. Nassim Nicholas Taleb‏Verified account @nntaleb 1 Dec 2019
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      At the "meeting", #RiadPonzi exhibited a lack of financial proficiency. He said "We issued CDs at 6%, they are now at 20%, so we have profits." Imagine a CEO saying: we issued bonds/stocks, their value collapsed, we make yuuge profits if we bought them back 50% lower!

      15 replies 39 retweets 322 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 1 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @nntaleb

      If they did buy them back why wouldn’t that be a profitable?

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. Nassim Nicholas Taleb‏Verified account @nntaleb 1 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      The reason the bonds are lower is because their cost of funds are higher. So, no, the overall gains are economically 0.

      1 reply 1 retweet 21 likes
    4. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 1 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @nntaleb

      If they don’t have to issue new debt or equity, it’s a profitable transaction; I sell a promise to pay $100 for $97. 1 year later market incorrectly values the promise at $50. I buy it back. I’ve made $47. I wouldn’t make this a country’s economic plan, but it is profitable.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Nassim Nicholas Taleb‏Verified account @nntaleb 1 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      You don't get it. Where will you get the funds to buy it back fromm? By borrowing at 20%

      2 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
    6. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 1 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @nntaleb

      I do get it. I’m making a technical point which does not change the general correctness of your statement, but I’m nonetheless still right. Borrow $97, promise to pay $100. Buy back for $50. Keep $47. Provides no need for additional financing, it works.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Nassim Nicholas Taleb‏Verified account @nntaleb 1 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      No, you still don't get it. If you don't need additional financing your bonds would NOT be at 20%.

      1 reply 0 retweets 18 likes
      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 1 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @nntaleb

      I do get it and now you’re making me mad. I keep telling you that under the following conditions it is mathematically profitable and you keep ignoring my statement cite different conditions. Markets are volatile and misappraise as you know better than I.

      5:55 AM - 1 Dec 2019
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        1. Nassim Nicholas Taleb‏Verified account @nntaleb 1 Dec 2019
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          Replying to @Molson_Hart

          "Under the following conditions", bonds would not be at 20%. You need to try to think before making statements in finance. Study some finance.

          1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
        2. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 1 Dec 2019
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          Replying to @nntaleb

          Out of respect for you and your work I will try to explain one last time. Also, I would appreciate it if you didn’t go ad hominem on me while knowing NOTHInG about what I have studied or who I am. 1. Country A needs money so they decide to sell $100 10y bonds at $97

          3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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