Thought experiment: universe of 100 stocks. One of them returns 1000%, and the other 99 return 1% each. So the average return is 10.99%. Then, portfolios of 10 stocks are created at random. How many will beat the market? Equal to the chance of picking the big winner, only 9.6%.
-
Show this thread
-
The market's long-term returns are dominated by a small number of huge winners. I wonder how much of the difficulty of beating the market is due to this effect?
4 replies 1 retweet 21 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @walt373
This begs the question: have markets become more winner-take-all? It's hard for me to imagine that in the 1800s and 1900s single companies were able to lord over our economies like the software giants of today.
2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @Molson_Hart @walt373
Communications technology and the world of atoms over bits made this much too difficult and thus there were more winners, albeit with each winner being less pronounced over the average.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @Molson_Hart
If you're right, this could make index investing even more attractive vs long-only stockpicking, and shortsellers could get more potential targets. But markets may price in winner-take-all dynamics to compensate.
2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @walt373
Depends on what your goals are (get rich vs super rich), but I agree with you. What happens if those companies stop going public? Could FAAG (imho Netflix doesn't belong on this list) be where they are as private companies?
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @Molson_Hart
If, theoretically, all the winners stayed private, they are still going to eat the losers' lunch in the real world, and public market returns would decline. Doubt that would happen though... too many advantages to being public.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
The silicon valley ecosystem/model is built on IPO at the end but how does money raised by Amazon, Google, or Facebook compare to the private money raising Giants like WeWoek or Uber? Comparable amounts of money?
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.