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Contrarian viewpoint alert
I am skeptical of the long-term profitability of Netflix.
In the @bgurley @patrick_oshag podcast Gurley talked about how certain markets don't lend themselves to the creation of profitable network effects marketplaces.
For example, if there's too much customer concentration on either the buyer or seller side, that side can effective collude to prevent marketplace formation. It's my understanding that this is what has happened in the US airlines industry.
Disney, ATT, Comcast, Sony, Viacom between them have 85% market share of the movie industry. Are they really going to let some company like Netflix, Amazon, or whatever come between them and their customers? I'm skeptical. It takes a lot of money to make a movie or a show.
It's a serious barrier to entry, unlike in music (spotify) or in user-generated video (youtube). Would John Malone be buying content if he thought that Netflix was going to be eating his margin? Don't think so.
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