Using the yield curve as a predictor for a near-term recession works better than every other economic indicator because it aggregates all the other stats into a market-wide opinion where all the participants have skin in the game.
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ISM manufacturing index doesn't consider what FAANG (a huge part of our economy) are doing and there are all sorts of reasons it could rise or fall without a recession. Yield curve ain't like that. But, I should shut the fuck up for stepping outside my area of competence.
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Replying to @Solomon_Slate
It's predicted 16 out of the last 7 recessions!pic.twitter.com/QVKVdnQpCd
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
No, no, I meant your commentary on yield curve was not bad for being outside your area! Hahhaa, sorry to make you look up that chart, I was well aware. :)
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Even a blind squirrel finds a nut from time to time. Most people on twitter way more financially savvy than I am. Thank you though! Looking up the chart was a pleasure.
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