Using the yield curve as a predictor for a near-term recession works better than every other economic indicator because it aggregates all the other stats into a market-wide opinion where all the participants have skin in the game.
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ISM manufacturing index doesn't consider what FAANG (a huge part of our economy) are doing and there are all sorts of reasons it could rise or fall without a recession. Yield curve ain't like that. But, I should shut the fuck up for stepping outside my area of competence.
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