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Using the yield curve as a predictor for a near-term recession works better than every other economic indicator because it aggregates all the other stats into a market-wide opinion where all the participants have skin in the game.
ISM manufacturing index doesn't consider what FAANG (a huge part of our economy) are doing and there are all sorts of reasons it could rise or fall without a recession. Yield curve ain't like that. But, I should shut the fuck up for stepping outside my area of competence.
It's not bad actually.
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