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Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

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Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

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    1. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 22 Aug 2019
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      Replying to @svrnco

      What happens when we get another grey bar?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Samuel Lee‏ @svrnco 22 Aug 2019
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      Depends on the type of recession. In a conventional one, debt to GDP will ratchet up as it has over the past 40 years. In the 60s and 70s when we had stagflation, debt/GDP remained relatively flat.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Samuel Lee‏ @svrnco 22 Aug 2019
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      Replying to @svrnco @Molson_Hart

      Japan's central govt debt/GDP is at 200%. So potentially lots of runway before the U.S. encounters problems.pic.twitter.com/yTBjF2bBUb

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 22 Aug 2019
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      Replying to @svrnco

      At the rate we're going, hyperinflation in the United States in our lifetime cannot be ruled out. Interesting (but logical) that Debt/GDP did not rise during the stagflation recessions of the 70s.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Samuel Lee‏ @svrnco 22 Aug 2019
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      I don't think we'll see hyperinflation but something like a repeat of the 50s, 60s, 70s. The U.S. has worked off much bigger debt loads (as % of GDP), most recently after WWII, through high but not insane inflation.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Samuel Lee‏ @svrnco 22 Aug 2019
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      Replying to @svrnco @Molson_Hart

      Check out this longer time series. Federal debt/GDP peaked at 120% and was worked off over several decades.pic.twitter.com/luh5KENjoy

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Samuel Lee‏ @svrnco 22 Aug 2019
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      Replying to @svrnco @Molson_Hart

      It was horrible for bond holders, but the U.S. came out fine. Equities, of course, did OK--eventually.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 22 Aug 2019
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      Replying to @svrnco

      How'd the US work the WW2 debt off? Growth? Why was it bad for bond holders? Today we're an older country, with higher rates of corporate, state, and local debt. Might not be so easy this time around.pic.twitter.com/47beDEu69s

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 22 Aug 2019
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @svrnco

      I'm no macroeconomist and I don't trust them anyways. It seems to me that we've had huge inflation in this country, that has been kept in check by outsourcing to cheap Chinese labor. We won't be able to do that at the same rate going forward.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Samuel Lee‏ @svrnco 22 Aug 2019
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      There's been a richening in asset prices, but that's part of a secular shift toward more savings (and falling interest rates), probably due to an aging population.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 22 Aug 2019
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      Replying to @svrnco

      Of course, hasn't just been in asset prices. Education, housing, and healthcare have all greatly outpaced CPI. Correct me if wrong, but we've also had a big increase in money supply.

      12:28 PM - 22 Aug 2019
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Samuel Lee‏ @svrnco 22 Aug 2019
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          Replying to @Molson_Hart

          We have. Cost of education and healthcare have gone up, but for other reasons. Also, you'd expect them to go up due to Baumol's cost disease.

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