Molson Hart

You might not understand this as someone who has spent a lot of time in government/academia but there are PLENTY of fortune 500 CEOs who have NO IDEA how manufacturing/supply chains work. Also, I didn't say they all don't know what they're talking about. Others are lying.

It is all abt scale. Limited scale moves can work if they do not breach the capacity limits. But large scale moves? Just think India. Big country, bad road and worse, a port that lags in efficiency and throughput. Now think about the logistics of movinh parts in and output out

China does not need to be "replaced" by a single country. It can be replaced by Southeast Asia in general. Whether or not scale is a problem is highly dependent on the particular supply chain of an item.

Just take a look at a desktop or laptop. Apple moved the new Mac Pro manufacturing to China. Why? The same answer applies to almost all industries: supply chain, logistics, scale. At the end of the day, you can try to move assembly to countries like Thailand and M'sia but

The bulk of intermediate goods will be shipped from China. Why? Because bulk of non-US bound goods will still be made there (cost efficiency). Indonesia is the only country in Asean that has the population but it has NO infrastructure.

I lived in the region for 30+ years. I know what each country has to offer. There will be no efficiency. Just to prove a point, Asean has also outsouced to China.

SEA's supply chain is getting better every year. Yes, most of the products made in SEA today include significant imported subcomponents from China, but it gets less and less every year. At the same time, China's workers are fewer, older, and relatively more expensive.

In China, there are factory towns that specialize in certain types of products. There is no reason why we will not see the same develop in SEA. For example, India is proficient in jute, cotton apparel, and jewelry. Their supply chain for these products is strong.