The lower the cost and faster the speed, the more compelling grocery delivery will be. Pre-existing grocery stores, as store-goers falls, fixed costs stay fixed and brick-and-mortar grocery sales will become more costly.
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Interestingly, the rise of telecommuting will also accelerate the shift away from brick-and-mortar retail. The cost of picking something up at the store goes way up when you're not already passing by that store on the way back from work.
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If you believe that I'm right about these things, then miles driven per capita are going to go way down.
Commuting to work
Old school brick and mortar retail
Restaurants and bars
School
Experiential shopping
Leisure i.e. parks, sports, hikes etc.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likesShow this thread -
This has huge implications on the way we will live and thus the rise and fall of real estate values.
Functional, but unpleasant downtowns
Work-focussed cities without redeeming qualities
Neighborhoods whose values is based on proximity to big-box retail or class B malls2 replies 0 retweets 0 likesShow this thread -
By the same token, in reverse:
Downtowns that do not alone function as a funnel point for commuters
Beautiful places that previously had low migration due to few job opportunities
Neighborhoods whose values are based on schools, pleasant commercial areas, or parks1 reply 0 retweets 0 likesShow this thread -
This process is going to be really interesting. It's going to happen over the next 1-2 decades and is pretty unpredictable. Who could've predicted industrial buildings being repurposed as high-end residential living for example? What do you think?
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
These trends will move in these directions, but at larger companies there definitely are significant advantages to having everyone in the office (or walkably near each other). VR/AR may start to mimic water cooler chats and random encounters but there is value to proximity
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Replying to @davidgshort
For sure, ceteris paribus, having everyone working in the same space is way better than having everyone live at home, but there are some counterpoints: 1. Average commute in USA is 26 minutes, or 4.33 hours/week. And it's higher in cities 2. People are happier working at home
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @davidgshort
The future of office work (not manufacturing, industrial, food prep, distribution, etc.) is hybridized: people working 4 days at home and randomly going in for meetings or using company facilities.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
Hmm, that would definitely be interesting and on some scale solve what I’m talking about (whether it’s 1 or 3 days in person). How would that work? WeWork style sharing where companies trade off the days where they use the space?
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That's interesting! That would totally work and might be a way forward. People can just bring their laptops with them. You don't need your full multi-screen set-up on days when you're working with others. Dedicating alternating days to meetings vs. solo-deep-work could be nice.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
Right, or there are 2 monitors setup at all the desks, and that’s part of what you’re sharing, just needs a few adapters for different laptops to leverage.
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