Much more than self-driving cars, I think the trends towards e-commerce and telecommuting have the potential to dramatically change the way we live.pic.twitter.com/L1gqXc4u47
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...until the office is left with employees who must be there to receive and ship packages or use the lab for product development, etc. Grocery delivery will also see a S-curve growth pattern. The more deliveries made in a single area, the lower their cost and faster their speed.
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The lower the cost and faster the speed, the more compelling grocery delivery will be. Pre-existing grocery stores, as store-goers falls, fixed costs stay fixed and brick-and-mortar grocery sales will become more costly.
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Interestingly, the rise of telecommuting will also accelerate the shift away from brick-and-mortar retail. The cost of picking something up at the store goes way up when you're not already passing by that store on the way back from work.
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If you believe that I'm right about these things, then miles driven per capita are going to go way down.
Commuting to work
Old school brick and mortar retail
Restaurants and bars
School
Experiential shopping
Leisure i.e. parks, sports, hikes etc.Show this thread -
This has huge implications on the way we will live and thus the rise and fall of real estate values.
Functional, but unpleasant downtowns
Work-focussed cities without redeeming qualities
Neighborhoods whose values is based on proximity to big-box retail or class B mallsShow this thread -
By the same token, in reverse:
Downtowns that do not alone function as a funnel point for commuters
Beautiful places that previously had low migration due to few job opportunities
Neighborhoods whose values are based on schools, pleasant commercial areas, or parksShow this thread -
This process is going to be really interesting. It's going to happen over the next 1-2 decades and is pretty unpredictable. Who could've predicted industrial buildings being repurposed as high-end residential living for example? What do you think?
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End of conversation
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More about the future of brick-and-mortar retail/e-commerce here:https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1132315684996878336 …
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