Molson Hart

...until the office is left with employees who must be there to receive and ship packages or use the lab for product development, etc. Grocery delivery will also see a S-curve growth pattern. The more deliveries made in a single area, the lower their cost and faster their speed.

The lower the cost and faster the speed, the more compelling grocery delivery will be. Pre-existing grocery stores, as store-goers falls, fixed costs stay fixed and brick-and-mortar grocery sales will become more costly.

Interestingly, the rise of telecommuting will also accelerate the shift away from brick-and-mortar retail. The cost of picking something up at the store goes way up when you're not already passing by that store on the way back from work.

If you believe that I'm right about these things, then miles driven per capita are going to go way down. Commuting to work Old school brick and mortar retail Restaurants and bars School Experiential shopping Leisure i.e. parks, sports, hikes etc.

This has huge implications on the way we will live and thus the rise and fall of real estate values. Functional, but unpleasant downtowns Work-focussed cities without redeeming qualities Neighborhoods whose values is based on proximity to big-box retail or class B malls

By the same token, in reverse: Downtowns that do not alone function as a funnel point for commuters Beautiful places that previously had low migration due to few job opportunities Neighborhoods whose values are based on schools, pleasant commercial areas, or parks