Managers may not be overoptimistic, but they are overconfident. http://web.stanford.edu/~barreroj/BarreroJMP.pdf …pic.twitter.com/VmMEQXxGtM
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Agree with your last tweet. However, I will happily take the other side of this bet if the CEO has had his own money at risk for more than 5 years (not to be confused with someone who has risen through ranks at fortune 500 company). "PhD in statistics over a grizzled CEO"
As a separate point, "I genuinely hope you succeed beyond your wildest dreams" assumes I have not already 
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