Managers may not be overoptimistic, but they are overconfident. http://web.stanford.edu/~barreroj/BarreroJMP.pdf …pic.twitter.com/VmMEQXxGtM
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All of those are very useful sources of knowledge and all have their own kinds of bias. For example, nearly every CEO will tell you that markets focus excessively on short-term results… but the data doesn't obviously support this: https://www.nber.org/papers/w23464.pdf ….
It's not that the data doesn't support it. It's that there's no good way of sussing out the truth from the limited data we do have. Why cite a NBER paper when you can source Bezos' famous 1997 letter? His 20+ years of subsequent success is stronger than any GARCH regression.pic.twitter.com/Hr689Jy5i2
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