Managers may not be overoptimistic, but they are overconfident. http://web.stanford.edu/~barreroj/BarreroJMP.pdf …pic.twitter.com/VmMEQXxGtM
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You're the only founder-CEO I know who respects studies like this. Most seem to prefer anecdotes from friends/colleagues, books by practitioners, and their own experience. Not sure what to make of this, assuming I'm right.
FWIW, IMHO, most business studies by academics are complete garbage. The ones that are not are just academic, overwrought explanations of things that most people in industry know to be true from experience.
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agree
; accumulated, live-fire-with-consequences experience is under-valued and thus under-utilized in part because of the overconfidence problem. The best managers crave outside input while still relying on their specific facility for subject-matter decision & policy making. -
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