Managers may not be overoptimistic, but they are overconfident. http://web.stanford.edu/~barreroj/BarreroJMP.pdf …pic.twitter.com/VmMEQXxGtM
You're the only founder-CEO I know who respects studies like this. Most seem to prefer anecdotes from friends/colleagues, books by practitioners, and their own experience. Not sure what to make of this, assuming I'm right.
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All of those are very useful sources of knowledge and all have their own kinds of bias. For example, nearly every CEO will tell you that markets focus excessively on short-term results… but the data doesn't obviously support this: https://www.nber.org/papers/w23464.pdf ….
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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FWIW, IMHO, most business studies by academics are complete garbage. The ones that are not are just academic, overwrought explanations of things that most people in industry know to be true from experience.
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agree
; accumulated, live-fire-with-consequences experience is under-valued and thus under-utilized in part because of the overconfidence problem. The best managers crave outside input while still relying on their specific facility for subject-matter decision & policy making. - 10 more replies
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